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Your agent explains every trade.
We audit whether those explanations hold up.

Glass Box locks in your LLM trading agent's stated reasoning before outcomes are known, runs a statistical autopsy after each close, and feeds verified findings back into the agent. Real drivers stay. Decorative reasoning gets flagged. Harmful drivers get removed.

321
Trades logged
226
Positions closed
100.0%
Self-Deception Index
28.8%
Overconfidence Gap
Live data
Live trade log
Every decision the agent made, with its stated thesis locked in before the outcome was known.
Driver
Side
Showing
321
TimeSideEntryDriverConfRationaleResult
23 Jun, 17:43 SHORT $62596.9 momentum_breakout 60% Market's recent momentum is reversing, and this short position could c… open
23 Jun, 17:41 LONG $62598.5 mean_reversion 70% The market has oversold and may be due for a rebound given the recent … open
23 Jun, 17:38 LONG $62565.2 mean_reversion 60% The market appears oversold, and a minor bounce is underway, suggestin… open
23 Jun, 17:36 LONG $62579.0 mean_reversion 60% The recent sharp drop and current oversold RSI levels suggest a potent… open
23 Jun, 17:34 LONG $62594.4 mean_reversion 52% The market is oversold and has shown a slight bounce, suggesting a pot… open
23 Jun, 17:32 LONG $62602.1 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion is likely as BTC price has dropped significantly in the… open
23 Jun, 17:30 LONG $62574.1 mean_reversion 70% The market's RSI and recent price action suggest a potential mean reve… open
23 Jun, 17:28 LONG $62548.7 mean_reversion 75% The market is oversold and showing signs of mean reversion, with a pos… open
23 Jun, 17:26 LONG $62567.5 mean_reversion 65% The recent drop in price, coupled with oversold RSI, suggests a mean r… open
23 Jun, 17:24 LONG $62582.4 mean_reversion 68% The market is oversold and due for a rebound, given the recent decline… open
23 Jun, 17:22 LONG $62568.1 mean_reversion 70% The market has oversold and is due for a bounce, with RSI at 19.9 and … open
23 Jun, 17:20 LONG $62621.8 mean_reversion 65% The recent downturn has pushed BTC to oversold RSI levels, suggesting … open
23 Jun, 17:18 LONG $62643.6 mean_reversion 60% The low RSI reading and recent price drop suggest the market may be du… open
23 Jun, 17:16 LONG $62663.4 mean_reversion 70% The recent sharp decline has pushed RSI into oversold territory, sugge… open
23 Jun, 17:13 LONG $62705.3 mean_reversion 62% The market appears oversold, with a low RSI and a recent decline, crea… open
23 Jun, 17:11 LONG $62720.4 mean_reversion 60% Market has recently declined and RSI suggests strong oversold conditio… open
23 Jun, 17:09 LONG $62649.8 mean_reversion 60% The recent decline has led to an oversold condition, suggesting a pote… open
23 Jun, 17:07 LONG $62685.9 mean_reversion 65% The market has overcorrected, and the current price presents a good en… open
23 Jun, 17:05 LONG $62495.9 mean_reversion 80% The extremely oversold RSI and recent price drop suggest a potential m… open
23 Jun, 17:03 LONG $62420.1 mean_reversion 60% The current oversold conditions and recent short-term price decline su… open
23 Jun, 17:01 LONG $62496.1 mean_reversion 70% Market has oversold and shown some short-term stability, suggesting a … open
23 Jun, 16:59 LONG $62414.1 mean_reversion 70% The RSI is near oversold levels, suggesting a potential mean reversion… open
23 Jun, 16:57 LONG $62377.9 mean_reversion 70% The market has overcorrected, creating a buying opportunity given the … open
23 Jun, 16:55 LONG $62312.9 mean_reversion 58% The sharp price drop and extremely low RSI suggest the market is due f… open
23 Jun, 16:53 SHORT $62294.8 mean_reversion 80% The current market conditions indicate a potential mean reversion setu… open
23 Jun, 16:50 LONG $62202.0 mean_reversion 70% The extreme oversold condition and recent price drop make a mean rever… open
23 Jun, 16:48 LONG $62242.1 mean_reversion 80% The current oversold conditions and significant 24h price drop suggest… open
23 Jun, 16:46 LONG $62256.1 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion is likely given the extreme oversold conditions and rec… open
23 Jun, 16:44 LONG $62285.1 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion is likely as the price has fallen sharply and the RSI i… open
23 Jun, 16:42 LONG $62245.3 mean_reversion 70% Market appears oversold after a significant decline, setting up for po… open
23 Jun, 16:40 LONG $62283.1 mean_reversion 70% The recent price drop and oversold RSI make a strong case for a short-… open
23 Jun, 16:38 LONG $62365.6 mean_reversion 70% The recent price drop seems overextended, setting up a potential mean … open
23 Jun, 16:36 LONG $62409.5 mean_reversion 55% The price has dropped significantly, and RSI is at oversold levels, su… open
23 Jun, 16:34 LONG $62402.8 mean_reversion 70% The price has fallen significantly, and we're seeing oversold conditio… open
23 Jun, 16:32 LONG $62354.1 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion is likely as BTC price has fallen significantly in the … open
23 Jun, 16:29 LONG $62243.2 mean_reversion 65% The market has been heavily selling off, but the RSI has reached overs… open
23 Jun, 16:27 LONG $62268.1 mean_reversion 72% The market has overshot to the downside, and conditions are ripe for a… open
23 Jun, 16:25 LONG $62177.1 mean_reversion 70% This is a textbook mean reversion setup with the asset heavily oversol… open
23 Jun, 16:23 SHORT $62239.5 momentum_breakout 72% The 24h price drop and RSI suggest a strong momentum breakout to the d… open
23 Jun, 16:21 LONG $62276.4 mean_reversion 80% Market appears oversold, with RSI and 24h return suggesting a potentia… open
23 Jun, 16:19 LONG $62247.6 mean_reversion 62% Current extreme overreaction in the market creates a mean reversion op… open
23 Jun, 16:17 LONG $62276.2 mean_reversion 60% The recent 24h and 1h price drops, coupled with an oversold RSI readin… open
23 Jun, 16:15 LONG $62312.8 mean_reversion 70% The market has overcorrected, indicating potential for a bounce. open
23 Jun, 16:13 LONG $62347.2 mean_reversion 70% The recent decline has pushed BTC into oversold territory, making a me… open
23 Jun, 16:11 LONG $62340.3 mean_reversion 70% The current price is a potential buying opportunity due to overcorrect… open
23 Jun, 16:09 LONG $62329.6 mean_reversion 70% The recent decline is likely to be temporary, given the oversold RSI a… open
23 Jun, 16:06 LONG $62350.3 mean_reversion 70% The recent decline appears overdone, suggesting a potential mean rever… open
23 Jun, 16:04 LONG $62449.1 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion is likely as BTC price has fallen significantly and RSI… open
23 Jun, 16:02 LONG $62425.6 mean_reversion 65% The market has been overcorrecting, with the RSI reaching oversold lev… open
23 Jun, 16:00 LONG $62422.3 mean_reversion 65% Given the recent price drop, BTC appears to be oversold and due for a … open
23 Jun, 15:58 LONG $62493.0 momentum_breakout 60% Market appears to be bouncing off lows, with momentum shifting in favo… open
23 Jun, 15:56 LONG $62441.0 mean_reversion 60% The RSI is at extremely oversold levels, indicating a potential mean r… open
23 Jun, 15:54 LONG $62450.0 mean_reversion 70% The current oversold conditions and recent price drop suggest a potent… open
23 Jun, 15:52 LONG $62517.6 mean_reversion 70% The recent 24h price drop and low RSI suggest a mean-reversion opportu… open
23 Jun, 15:50 LONG $62515.2 mean_reversion 60% The market has recently dropped significantly and is showing signs of … open
23 Jun, 15:48 LONG $62443.6 mean_reversion 60% The RSI and recent returns indicate BTC is oversold and due for a boun… open
23 Jun, 15:46 SHORT $62499.0 momentum_breakout 80% The recent price drop and low RSI suggest that the current momentum is… open
23 Jun, 15:43 LONG $62550.7 mean_reversion 65% The market's recent decline and low RSI suggest a potential mean rever… open
23 Jun, 15:41 LONG $62489.4 mean_reversion 70% Market appears oversold and due for a bounce, given the low RSI and re… open
23 Jun, 15:39 LONG $62551.4 mean_reversion 62% This setup suggests BTC is due for a bounce after a minor correction, … open
23 Jun, 15:37 SHORT $62693.3 momentum_breakout 65% Bearish momentum persists with price decline and low RSI, increasing l… open
23 Jun, 15:35 LONG $62514.5 mean_reversion 68% The price has dropped significantly in the past day, and the RSI is ov… open
23 Jun, 15:33 LONG $62517.1 mean_reversion 65% The recent 24h decline and low Fear & Greed index suggest a potent… open
23 Jun, 15:31 LONG $62539.8 mean_reversion 65% The current market conditions suggest BTC is due for a bounce, with RS… open
23 Jun, 15:29 LONG $62506.9 mean_reversion 70% The recent price drop and oversold RSI suggest a possible mean reversi… open
23 Jun, 15:27 LONG $62473.7 mean_reversion 80% The asset has been heavily sold, leading to an oversold condition, sug… open
23 Jun, 15:25 LONG $62561.7 mean_reversion 70% The market has been overcorrecting, with RSI at 20.9 and a recent 24h … open
23 Jun, 15:23 LONG $62564.6 mean_reversion 60% Mean reversion signals are strong, with the asset being oversold and r… open
23 Jun, 15:20 LONG $62745.6 momentum_breakout 70% Slightly oversold conditions and a hint of recovery in the 1 hour retu… open
23 Jun, 15:16 LONG $62656.8 mean_reversion 60% The market appears to be oversold, with a recent decline and low Fear … open
23 Jun, 15:14 LONG $62545.3 mean_reversion 80% The recent 24h decline and oversold RSI reading suggest a potential me… open
23 Jun, 15:12 LONG $62476.0 mean_reversion 70% The current RSI and price action suggest a potential mean reversion op… open
23 Jun, 15:10 LONG $62524.0 mean_reversion 60% The market has been oversold and has retraced significantly, suggestin… open
23 Jun, 15:08 LONG $62463.7 mean_reversion 60% The market appears to be oversold, with RSI at 17.9 and recent losses,… open
23 Jun, 15:05 LONG $62437.4 mean_reversion 70% The market has overcorrected and is due for a mean-reversion bounce. open
23 Jun, 15:03 SHORT $62525.6 sentiment_extreme 80% The market is extremely fearful, with low RSI and a recent decline, in… open
23 Jun, 15:01 LONG $62541.0 mean_reversion 60% The current price is likely a buying opportunity as it's oversold acco… open
23 Jun, 14:59 LONG $62416.4 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion signals are strong with BTC at a low RSI reading and a … open
23 Jun, 14:57 LONG $62414.0 mean_reversion 60% The recent large 24h return and the oversold RSI indicate that BTC is … open
23 Jun, 14:29 SHORT $62037.0 momentum_breakout 70% Extremely oversold conditions and a recent strong downward momentum ma… open
23 Jun, 14:27 SHORT $62017.9 momentum_breakout 80% The recent price drop and oversold RSI suggest a strong potential for … open
23 Jun, 14:25 LONG $62011.9 mean_reversion 70% The recent decline in price has led to oversold conditions, making a r… open
23 Jun, 14:23 LONG $62094.7 mean_reversion 65% The market has been heavily sold off recently, and with RSI at 13.9, i… open
23 Jun, 14:21 SHORT $62096.3 mean_reversion 80% The market's extreme oversoldness and recent large losses make a mean … open
23 Jun, 14:19 LONG $62117.2 mean_reversion 68% The market has recently declined sharply, with RSI in extreme oversold… open
23 Jun, 14:17 LONG $62093.3 mean_reversion 70% The market has overshot, and a bounce is likely due to mean reversion. open
23 Jun, 14:15 SHORT $62137.5 momentum_breakout 85% The market is showing signs of a strong downward momentum, with the pr… open
23 Jun, 14:13 LONG $62111.0 mean_reversion 60% The market has overcorrected and BTC is due for a bounce based on its … open
23 Jun, 14:11 LONG $62085.5 mean_reversion 65% The recent price drop and low RSI suggest a possible mean reversion op… open
23 Jun, 14:08 LONG $62147.2 mean_reversion 70% The market has been oversold lately and is due for a rebound. open
23 Jun, 14:06 SHORT $62176.0 momentum_breakout 80% Given the strong price drops and extreme fear, it's likely that the pr… open
23 Jun, 14:04 SHORT $62153.5 momentum_breakout 70% The market is showing signs of a short-term momentum break, with stron… open
23 Jun, 14:02 LONG $62257.2 mean_reversion 65% The market has oversold and the recent drop may trigger a mean reversi… open
23 Jun, 14:00 SHORT $62225.6 momentum_breakout 70% The strong downward momentum and oversold RSI conditions on the 1-hour… open
23 Jun, 13:58 LONG $62230.0 mean_reversion 60% The market has corrected significantly, and the RSI suggests it's over… open
23 Jun, 13:39 LONG $62300.1 mean_reversion 62% Bitcoin's price has dropped significantly in the past 24 hours, and th… +$5
23 Jun, 13:36 LONG $62341.2 mean_reversion 50% The extreme decline in price has led to oversold conditions, suggestin… +$4
23 Jun, 13:34 LONG $62353.2 mean_reversion 52% This is a classic oversold setup with RSI below 30 and a 24h loss, mak… +$4
23 Jun, 13:32 LONG $62404.4 mean_reversion 60% The sharp price drop and low RSI suggest that a mean reversion is over… +$4
23 Jun, 13:30 LONG $62383.2 mean_reversion 70% The recent price drops and extremely low Fear & Greed index sugges… +$4
23 Jun, 13:28 LONG $62356.1 momentum_breakout 50% The price has bounced significantly after a 4.24% 24h drop, indicating… +$4
23 Jun, 13:26 LONG $62342.4 mean_reversion 60% The market has oversold, with a low RSI and significant 24h loss, sugg… +$4
23 Jun, 13:24 LONG $62347.3 mean_reversion 55% The recent decline in BTC price, as indicated by a 24h return of -4.25… +$4
23 Jun, 13:21 LONG $62347.8 mean_reversion 60% The sharp drop in BTC price has likely created a buying opportunity, g… +$4
23 Jun, 13:19 LONG $62400.3 mean_reversion 60% Market conditions suggest a potential mean reversion opportunity, with… +$4
23 Jun, 13:17 LONG $62371.7 mean_reversion 60% The market is oversold and showing signs of mean reversion, with a rec… +$5
23 Jun, 13:15 LONG $62385.2 mean_reversion 80% The extreme oversold RSI(14) and low funding rate suggest a potential … +$5
23 Jun, 13:13 SHORT $62383.5 momentum_breakout 80% The recent significant price drop over the past 24 hours, combined wit… $5
23 Jun, 13:11 LONG $62379.2 mean_reversion 70% The extreme Fear & Greed index and recent large price drops create… +$6
23 Jun, 13:09 LONG $62432.3 mean_reversion 60% The current oversold conditions and significant price drop make a mean… +$4
23 Jun, 13:07 LONG $62432.2 mean_reversion 65% The market has likely overreacted to recent losses, making a rebound a… +$5
23 Jun, 13:05 LONG $62439.8 mean_reversion 60% Given the recent sharp decline and RSI reading, a mean reversion to th… +$1
23 Jun, 13:03 LONG $62520.1 mean_reversion 70% The market has recently experienced a significant drop, and the RSI su… $1
23 Jun, 13:01 LONG $62484.7 mean_reversion 70% The market has overshot to the downside, and a bounce is likely immine… +$1
23 Jun, 12:59 LONG $62489.7 mean_reversion 70% The current price and RSI suggest a potential mean reversion opportuni… $1
23 Jun, 12:57 LONG $62485.8 mean_reversion 70% Market has overshot to the downside, RSI and recent return suggest a p… $1
23 Jun, 12:55 LONG $62484.7 mean_reversion 65% Market has dropped 3.3% in 24h, RSI is oversold, suggesting an opportu… $2
23 Jun, 12:52 SHORT $62446.7 momentum_breakout 80% The recent decline in price and negative 24h return suggest the market… +$2
23 Jun, 12:43 LONG $62549.1 mean_reversion 70% The market has recently oversold, with RSI at a low and a brief 24h dr… $4
23 Jun, 12:41 LONG $62596.8 mean_reversion 70% The recent 24h decline and extreme Fear & Greed index suggest a po… $5
23 Jun, 12:39 LONG $62571.1 mean_reversion 65% The market has oversold and is due for a bounce based on the RSI readi… $4
23 Jun, 12:37 LONG $62563.6 mean_reversion 70% The recent decline has pushed BTC to oversold levels, indicating a pot… $3
23 Jun, 12:35 LONG $62536.9 mean_reversion 70% The market is oversold and due for a bounce, given the recent price dr… $1
23 Jun, 12:32 LONG $62564.1 mean_reversion 65% The recent decline has pushed BTC into oversold territory, suggesting … $2
23 Jun, 12:30 LONG $62512.1 mean_reversion 60% The recent price drop, combined with a low RSI(14), suggests a potenti… $2
23 Jun, 12:28 LONG $62500.4 mean_reversion 80% The market has oversold and is likely due for a bounce given the RSI r… $4
23 Jun, 12:26 LONG $62490.9 mean_reversion 70% The market has oversold and the recent price drop suggests a potential… $3
23 Jun, 12:24 LONG $62537.6 mean_reversion 60% The recent decline in BTC has led to oversold conditions, making a sho… $5
23 Jun, 12:22 LONG $62514.7 mean_reversion 70% Market has overcorrected on short-term losses, setting up a potential … $4
23 Jun, 12:20 SHORT $62390.3 momentum_breakout 60% Strong indication of a potential reversal due to overbought conditions… +$2
23 Jun, 12:18 SHORT $62399.9 momentum_breakout 60% BTC is oversold and has recently declined, suggesting a short-term bou… +$2
23 Jun, 12:16 LONG $62400.1 mean_reversion 70% The RSI is extremely oversold and in need of a correction, making it a… $1
23 Jun, 12:14 LONG $62353.8 mean_reversion 70% The price has dropped significantly in the past 24 hours, and the RSI … $0
23 Jun, 12:12 LONG $62351.0 mean_reversion 60% The market's recent decline and low RSI suggest a potential rebound +$0
23 Jun, 12:10 LONG $62335.0 mean_reversion 60% The market's extreme oversold conditions and recent price drop suggest… +$0
23 Jun, 12:08 LONG $62356.4 mean_reversion 60% The extremely oversold RSI reading and recent slight bounce in price s… +$0
23 Jun, 12:06 LONG $62300.5 mean_reversion 70% The market appears oversold, making a mean reversion to previous level… +$1
23 Jun, 12:03 LONG $62351.6 momentum_breakout 70% Short-term losses may be reversed as BTC bounces off oversold levels a… +$2
23 Jun, 12:01 LONG $62311.9 momentum_breakout 40% The market has overshot to the downside, and a small bounce is underwa… +$2
23 Jun, 11:59 SHORT $62298.7 momentum_breakout 80% Market is showing clear signs of a momentum breakout to the downside a… $2
23 Jun, 11:57 LONG $62302.1 mean_reversion 60% The asset is oversold and has corrected by a relatively small amount, … +$4
23 Jun, 11:55 LONG $62266.1 mean_reversion 60% Market is oversold and RSI indicates a potential buying opportunity, w… +$3
23 Jun, 11:53 LONG $62253.6 mean_reversion 70% Market appears due for a bounce given extreme oversold RSI and recent … +$4
23 Jun, 11:51 LONG $62248.5 mean_reversion 70% The market has overcorrected, with very low RSI and a substantial 24h … +$5
23 Jun, 11:49 SHORT $62262.1 momentum_breakout 80% The significant drop in price over the last 24 hours, coupled with ove… $4
23 Jun, 11:47 LONG $62235.7 mean_reversion 80% The market is oversold and the funding rate is high, indicating a pote… +$4
23 Jun, 11:45 LONG $62231.3 mean_reversion 65% The current price is significantly oversold, and a mean reversion is l… +$5
23 Jun, 11:42 LONG $62220.0 mean_reversion 70% Market appears oversold and due for a bounce, with a low RSI and negat… +$6
23 Jun, 11:40 LONG $62283.8 mean_reversion 70% Market is oversold and showing signs of capitulation, making a strong … +$4
23 Jun, 11:38 LONG $62269.5 mean_reversion 60% The current extremely oversold RSI and negative funding rate suggest a… +$5
23 Jun, 10:39 LONG $62417.4 mean_reversion 60% The current RSI and recent 24h return suggest that the market has over… +$0
23 Jun, 10:39 LONG $62417.4 mean_reversion 66% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.11%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… +$0
23 Jun, 10:37 LONG $62447.1 momentum_breakout 70% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.15%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $0
23 Jun, 10:37 LONG $62447.1 mean_reversion 70% The market is oversold, and BTC has shown a history of mean reversion … $0
23 Jun, 10:35 LONG $62457.7 mean_reversion 60% Market appears oversold based on RSI, and recent price action suggests… $1
23 Jun, 10:35 LONG $62457.7 momentum_breakout 72% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.17%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $1
23 Jun, 10:33 LONG $62446.8 mean_reversion 70% Mean reversion signals suggest BTC is due for a bounce from oversold l… $1
23 Jun, 10:33 LONG $62446.8 momentum_breakout 70% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.15%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $1
23 Jun, 10:31 LONG $62457.6 momentum_breakout 72% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.17%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $1
23 Jun, 10:31 LONG $62457.6 mean_reversion 70% The market appears oversold, with RSI at 12.4 and a 24h return of -2.5… $1
23 Jun, 10:29 LONG $62483.9 mean_reversion 62% The recent sharp drop has led to an oversold condition, making a mean … $7
23 Jun, 10:29 LONG $62483.9 momentum_breakout 76% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.21%, RSI 13. Expecting continu… $7
23 Jun, 10:27 LONG $62464.3 momentum_breakout 73% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.18%, RSI 13. Expecting continu… $7
23 Jun, 10:27 LONG $62464.2 mean_reversion 65% The market has overshot to the downside, and recent short-term returns… $7
23 Jun, 10:27 LONG $62464.2 momentum_breakout 73% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.18%, RSI 13. Expecting continu… $7
23 Jun, 10:25 LONG $62451.1 momentum_breakout 71% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.16%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $7
23 Jun, 10:25 LONG $62451.2 momentum_breakout 71% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.16%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $7
23 Jun, 10:25 LONG $62451.2 mean_reversion 67% The recent sharp drop in price and low RSI(14) suggest a potential mea… $7
23 Jun, 10:23 LONG $62461.7 momentum_breakout 73% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.18%, RSI 13. Expecting continu… $5
23 Jun, 10:23 LONG $62472.9 mean_reversion 80% The market is oversold and showing signs of short-term weakness, makin… $6
23 Jun, 10:23 LONG $62473.0 momentum_breakout 74% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.19%, RSI 13. Expecting continu… $6
23 Jun, 10:21 LONG $62450.1 momentum_breakout 71% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.16%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $5
23 Jun, 10:21 LONG $62450.1 momentum_breakout 71% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.16%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $5
23 Jun, 10:21 LONG $62453.5 mean_reversion 70% The BTC price has overshot on the downside and RSI is extremely overso… $6
23 Jun, 10:19 LONG $62416.0 mean_reversion 65% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.10%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:19 LONG $62429.8 mean_reversion 67% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.12%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $5
23 Jun, 10:19 LONG $62429.8 mean_reversion 80% The recent decline has led to an oversold condition, suggesting a pote… $5
23 Jun, 10:17 LONG $62446.6 momentum_breakout 70% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.15%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $5
23 Jun, 10:17 LONG $62446.5 momentum_breakout 70% Buying momentum breakout: 1h momentum 0.15%, RSI 12. Expecting continu… $5
23 Jun, 10:17 LONG $62446.5 mean_reversion 70% The market is oversold and due for a bounce given the extreme RSI read… $5
23 Jun, 10:15 LONG $62409.4 mean_reversion 64% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.09%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:15 LONG $62409.3 mean_reversion 64% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.09%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:13 LONG $62419.2 mean_reversion 66% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.11%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:10 LONG $62395.3 mean_reversion 62% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.07%, RSI 10. Expecting continuati… $5
23 Jun, 10:10 LONG $62385.6 mean_reversion 60% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.05%, RSI 10. Expecting continuati… $5
23 Jun, 10:08 LONG $62317.2 mean_reversion 61% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.06%, RSI 9. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:08 LONG $62333.3 mean_reversion 58% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.03%, RSI 9. Expecting continuati… $3
23 Jun, 10:06 LONG $62412.4 mean_reversion 65% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.10%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:06 LONG $62376.6 mean_reversion 59% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.04%, RSI 10. Expecting continuati… $3
23 Jun, 10:04 LONG $62385.9 mean_reversion 60% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.05%, RSI 10. Expecting continuati… $3
23 Jun, 10:04 LONG $62394.8 mean_reversion 62% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.07%, RSI 10. Expecting continuati… $3
23 Jun, 10:02 LONG $62415.3 mean_reversion 65% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.10%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $4
23 Jun, 10:02 LONG $62412.0 mean_reversion 65% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.10%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $2
23 Jun, 10:00 LONG $62407.2 mean_reversion 64% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.09%, RSI 11. Expecting continuati… $2
23 Jun, 10:00 LONG $62373.8 mean_reversion 59% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum 0.04%, RSI 10. Expecting continuati… $2
23 Jun, 09:58 LONG $62330.3 mean_reversion 95% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.83%, RSI 13. Expecting continuat… $1
23 Jun, 09:58 LONG $62356.6 mean_reversion 95% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.78%, RSI 14. Expecting continuat… $2
23 Jun, 09:56 LONG $62399.7 mean_reversion 95% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.72%, RSI 14. Expecting continuat… $2
23 Jun, 09:56 LONG $62389.0 mean_reversion 95% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.73%, RSI 14. Expecting continuat… $2
23 Jun, 09:54 LONG $62408.7 mean_reversion 95% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.70%, RSI 14. Expecting continuat… $2
23 Jun, 09:54 LONG $62416.9 mean_reversion 95% Buying mean reversion: 1h momentum -0.69%, RSI 14. Expecting continuat… $3
20 Jun, 00:00 LONG $65339.9 momentum_breakout 75% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$12
19 Jun, 23:00 LONG $65614.1 momentum_breakout 72% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$12
19 Jun, 22:00 LONG $64767.7 momentum_breakout 71% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $44
19 Jun, 21:00 LONG $67349.7 momentum_breakout 68% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $69
19 Jun, 20:00 LONG $62476.7 momentum_breakout 57% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$25
19 Jun, 19:00 LONG $63278.1 momentum_breakout 86% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$21
19 Jun, 18:00 LONG $62058.5 momentum_breakout 94% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$75
19 Jun, 17:00 LONG $62650.1 momentum_breakout 94% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $3
19 Jun, 16:00 LONG $62765.4 momentum_breakout 58% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$29
19 Jun, 15:00 LONG $66834.7 trend_follow 95% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $6
19 Jun, 14:00 LONG $64403.1 momentum_breakout 66% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $22
19 Jun, 13:00 LONG $65501.6 funding_signal 82% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$45
19 Jun, 12:00 LONG $63849.1 momentum_breakout 82% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$43
19 Jun, 11:00 LONG $63640.5 trend_follow 66% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $13
19 Jun, 10:00 LONG $64856.3 momentum_breakout 64% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $5
19 Jun, 09:00 LONG $61827.8 funding_signal 85% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$7
19 Jun, 08:00 LONG $64652.5 momentum_breakout 58% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$32
19 Jun, 07:00 LONG $64598.4 trend_follow 77% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$35
19 Jun, 06:00 LONG $62142.0 momentum_breakout 60% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$13
19 Jun, 05:00 LONG $63743.3 momentum_breakout 87% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$17
19 Jun, 04:00 SHORT $64295.7 trend_follow 61% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $44
19 Jun, 03:00 LONG $61881.5 momentum_breakout 94% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $50
19 Jun, 02:00 LONG $62382.1 funding_signal 90% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $57
19 Jun, 01:00 LONG $64138.1 momentum_breakout 75% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$17
19 Jun, 00:00 SHORT $62973.3 momentum_breakout 82% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$52
18 Jun, 23:00 LONG $65536.2 momentum_breakout 61% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$4
18 Jun, 22:00 LONG $66786.6 funding_signal 86% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $23
18 Jun, 21:00 SHORT $66118.3 momentum_breakout 91% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $30
18 Jun, 20:00 LONG $62233.2 trend_follow 75% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $5
18 Jun, 19:00 LONG $63926.5 trend_follow 57% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$21
18 Jun, 18:00 LONG $63764.4 trend_follow 61% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$23
18 Jun, 17:00 LONG $63271.8 momentum_breakout 61% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $48
18 Jun, 16:00 LONG $64735.2 trend_follow 81% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $12
18 Jun, 15:00 LONG $66055.1 momentum_breakout 80% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $36
18 Jun, 14:00 LONG $62437.9 trend_follow 87% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $7
18 Jun, 13:00 LONG $67307.3 momentum_breakout 71% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $25
18 Jun, 12:00 LONG $62402.9 funding_signal 78% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$21
18 Jun, 11:00 LONG $63060.6 trend_follow 86% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$30
18 Jun, 10:00 SHORT $62355.4 momentum_breakout 67% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $10
18 Jun, 09:00 LONG $62329.6 trend_follow 60% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $3
18 Jun, 08:00 LONG $65527.0 momentum_breakout 61% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$12
18 Jun, 07:00 LONG $63719.4 momentum_breakout 94% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $11
18 Jun, 06:00 LONG $65018.1 funding_signal 82% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$61
18 Jun, 05:00 LONG $63203.7 funding_signal 94% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$1
18 Jun, 04:00 LONG $65699.9 momentum_breakout 57% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $7
18 Jun, 03:00 LONG $64733.4 trend_follow 78% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$20
18 Jun, 02:00 LONG $65284.4 momentum_breakout 90% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $12
18 Jun, 01:00 LONG $65144.2 momentum_breakout 66% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $1
18 Jun, 00:00 LONG $64723.1 momentum_breakout 67% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $13
17 Jun, 23:00 LONG $62575.2 momentum_breakout 80% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $10
17 Jun, 22:00 LONG $63358.2 momentum_breakout 55% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$70
17 Jun, 21:00 LONG $63006.3 momentum_breakout 82% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $28
17 Jun, 20:00 SHORT $65076.4 momentum_breakout 62% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$17
17 Jun, 19:00 LONG $62211.4 momentum_breakout 68% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$46
17 Jun, 18:00 LONG $63329.3 momentum_breakout 72% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $14
17 Jun, 17:00 LONG $62922.4 momentum_breakout 70% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $45
17 Jun, 16:00 LONG $64863.0 momentum_breakout 55% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $7
17 Jun, 15:00 LONG $63339.5 momentum_breakout 87% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$0
17 Jun, 14:00 SHORT $65653.3 momentum_breakout 76% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$43
17 Jun, 13:00 LONG $65471.9 funding_signal 85% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$30
17 Jun, 12:00 LONG $65775.1 funding_signal 78% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $45
17 Jun, 11:00 SHORT $63726.4 momentum_breakout 72% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$24
17 Jun, 10:00 LONG $63869.0 funding_signal 93% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $27
17 Jun, 09:00 LONG $64775.4 momentum_breakout 78% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$21
17 Jun, 08:00 LONG $62692.1 momentum_breakout 89% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $18
17 Jun, 07:00 LONG $63930.7 momentum_breakout 85% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $11
17 Jun, 06:00 LONG $65518.6 momentum_breakout 74% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $22
17 Jun, 05:00 LONG $62624.9 momentum_breakout 63% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$8
17 Jun, 04:00 LONG $64404.7 momentum_breakout 69% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$46
17 Jun, 03:00 LONG $61884.3 trend_follow 66% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$43
17 Jun, 02:00 LONG $62980.7 momentum_breakout 85% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$19
17 Jun, 01:00 LONG $62254.8 momentum_breakout 68% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$13
17 Jun, 00:00 LONG $65998.5 funding_signal 69% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $51
16 Jun, 23:00 LONG $66647.3 momentum_breakout 56% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$36
16 Jun, 22:00 LONG $63393.4 momentum_breakout 82% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$0
16 Jun, 21:00 LONG $64995.2 funding_signal 65% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $36
16 Jun, 20:00 LONG $66904.8 momentum_breakout 83% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$54
16 Jun, 19:00 LONG $68105.6 momentum_breakout 65% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$8
16 Jun, 18:00 LONG $65774.5 funding_signal 71% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$6
16 Jun, 17:00 LONG $62470.4 momentum_breakout 69% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$14
16 Jun, 16:00 LONG $65325.5 momentum_breakout 91% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$33
16 Jun, 15:00 LONG $63588.2 funding_signal 79% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $13
16 Jun, 14:00 LONG $65395.6 momentum_breakout 83% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $93
16 Jun, 13:00 LONG $62049.4 trend_follow 58% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $3
16 Jun, 12:00 LONG $62593.2 momentum_breakout 85% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$10
16 Jun, 11:00 LONG $65819.8 momentum_breakout 95% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $41
16 Jun, 10:00 LONG $64531.8 momentum_breakout 79% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $13
16 Jun, 09:00 LONG $65180.6 momentum_breakout 79% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $19
16 Jun, 08:00 SHORT $64216.0 funding_signal 74% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $31
16 Jun, 07:00 SHORT $68800.0 momentum_breakout 57% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $16
16 Jun, 06:00 LONG $63832.9 trend_follow 67% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$19
16 Jun, 05:00 LONG $62500.0 momentum_breakout 86% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$22
16 Jun, 04:00 SHORT $63576.8 funding_signal 63% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$26
16 Jun, 03:00 LONG $63895.9 momentum_breakout 72% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$11
16 Jun, 02:00 LONG $63163.8 funding_signal 59% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$28
16 Jun, 01:00 LONG $64696.9 trend_follow 91% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $5
16 Jun, 00:00 LONG $66631.3 momentum_breakout 81% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$22
15 Jun, 23:00 LONG $63650.7 funding_signal 85% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$30
15 Jun, 22:00 SHORT $61071.4 funding_signal 82% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $4
15 Jun, 21:00 LONG $64716.0 trend_follow 71% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$44
15 Jun, 20:00 SHORT $65341.7 trend_follow 92% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$18
15 Jun, 19:00 LONG $63172.6 momentum_breakout 68% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$30
15 Jun, 18:00 LONG $61567.8 trend_follow 65% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $39
15 Jun, 17:00 LONG $66248.9 momentum_breakout 69% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $42
15 Jun, 16:00 LONG $61925.6 momentum_breakout 95% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $3
15 Jun, 15:00 LONG $64881.4 momentum_breakout 74% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$55
15 Jun, 14:00 LONG $63736.1 momentum_breakout 80% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $17
15 Jun, 13:00 LONG $63701.1 trend_follow 61% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $9
15 Jun, 12:00 SHORT $63307.4 momentum_breakout 68% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $27
15 Jun, 11:00 LONG $65019.4 momentum_breakout 79% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $16
15 Jun, 10:00 LONG $63378.1 momentum_breakout 83% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $36
15 Jun, 09:00 SHORT $63086.5 momentum_breakout 77% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$41
15 Jun, 08:00 LONG $65444.5 funding_signal 89% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$3
15 Jun, 07:00 LONG $61538.1 momentum_breakout 67% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. +$4
15 Jun, 06:00 LONG $62768.3 trend_follow 74% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $16
15 Jun, 05:00 LONG $62447.4 funding_signal 57% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $36
15 Jun, 04:00 LONG $65500.8 funding_signal 81% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. $39
15 Jun, 03:00 LONG $61879.7 momentum_breakout 64% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $24
15 Jun, 02:00 LONG $61994.0 momentum_breakout 70% Price cleared the 4h range on rising volume; expecting continuation. $26
15 Jun, 01:00 LONG $63398.0 trend_follow 78% Trend and positioning support staying with the move. +$15
Autopsy report
The engine's verdict on
whether stated reasoning explains results.
Most cited driver momentum_breakout is decorative (45.0% win vs 41.1% baseline). PnL is really driven by btc24hReturn (corr 0.70).
226
Trades analyzed
42.9%
Overall win rate
100.0%
Self-Deception Index ?
28.8%
Overconfidence Gap ?
What actually moved the PnL?
Strongest predictor: btc24hReturn (r = 0.70). Blue bars predicted wins, red bars predicted losses. PnL is net of round-trip friction. Across BTCUSDT.
btc24hReturn
+0.70
btc1hReturn
+0.56
fearGreed
-0.03
fundingRate
-0.03
rsi14
-0.03
volatility
-0.01
Were the stated reasons real?
Each reason the agent cited is compared against a direction adjusted baseline: what the same long/short mix of trades won without citing that reason. This prevents a label from looking like an edge just because it rode the market's direction. The L/S column shows that mix. Significance uses a two proportion z-test.
real edge decorative harmful insufficient data
Stated reasonTimes citedL / SWin rateDir adj baselineDeltaVerdict
momentum_breakout 100x 85L / 15S 45.0% 41.1% +3.9pp decorative
mean_reversion 82x 82L / 0S 37.8% 45.2% -7.4pp decorative
trend_follow 22x 20L / 2S 45.5% 42.7% +2.8pp decorative
funding_signal 22x 19L / 3S 50.0% 42.8% +7.2pp decorative

These 226 trades span 1 asset(s) with overlapping holding windows, so they are not fully independent observations — read the significance (z-scores) as directional, not as hard p-values.

Did confidence actually mean anything?
A well-calibrated agent wins roughly 80% of trades when it says it is 80% confident. A positive gap means it was overconfident. Confidence stated before the trade, outcome recorded after.
Confidence bucketTradesAgent saidActually wonGap
0.0-0.6 20 55.4% 60.0% -4.6pp
0.6-0.75 129 66.5% 39.5% +27.0pp overconfident
0.75-0.9 56 81.4% 53.6% +27.8pp overconfident
0.9-1.0 21 93.5% 19.0% +74.4pp overconfident
Documentation
Everything you need to install,
run, and understand Glass Box.

Getting started

Glass Box requires Node.js 20 or later. No additional runtime dependencies.

git clone https://github.com/IamHarrie-Labs/glass-box
cd glass-box
npm install

After install, copy .env.example to .env and add your LLM API key. Then run the agent with npm run agent.

Configuration

All settings are environment variables. Copy .env.example to .env to get started. Swap LLM providers by updating the three LLM_* vars. No code changes needed.

# LLM provider (any OpenAI-compatible endpoint)
LLM_API_KEY=your-key-here
LLM_BASE_URL=https://api.groq.com/openai/v1
LLM_MODEL=llama-3.1-8b-instant

# Tick interval in seconds
# 120 = one call every 2 minutes (safe for free-tier rate limits)
TICK_SECONDS=120

# Assets to trade, rotated one per tick.
# Multiple assets prevent the real driver finding from being a
# single-asset tautology (e.g. BTC predicting BTC).
SYMBOLS=BTCUSDT,ETHUSDT,SOLUSDT

# Round-trip trading friction in basis points (fee + slippage).
# Applied to every closed position to keep paper PnL honest.
# Default 6 bps. Set to 0 to disable.
FRICTION_BPS=6

# GitHub persistence (optional, for live Vercel site updates)
GITHUB_TOKEN=your-classic-pat
GITHUB_REPO=IamHarrie-Labs/glass-box
GITHUB_BRANCH=master

Commands

npm run agent

Starts the live paper-trading loop. Fetches Bitget market data every TICK_SECONDS, asks the LLM to reason, locks in the stated thesis, and writes a decision record. Rotates through SYMBOLS one per tick. Runs continuously until stopped.

npm run autopsy

Reads data/trades.jsonl, closes any matured open positions at the last known price, then runs the three autopsy analyses (signal attribution, self-deception detection, confidence calibration). Writes data/report.json.

npm run site

Reads data/trades.jsonl and data/report.json and regenerates docs/index.html with all live data embedded. Deploy the docs folder to any static host.

npm run report

Generates data/report.html, a standalone single-file audit report. Open in any browser, no server needed.

npm run demo

Seeds synthetic trade data, runs autopsy, and builds the report. Fully offline. No API keys or network connection required.

Decision record schema

Every trade the agent opens is written to data/trades.jsonl as one JSON object per line. The stated thesis is recorded before the position opens. Outcome fields are filled in at close. Any external agent that writes this schema can be audited by Glass Box without modifying agent code.

{
  "tradeId": "t_51bfe01c",
  "timestamp": "2026-06-23T09:17:09.000Z",
  "pair": "BTCUSDT",
  "side": "long",
  "entryPrice": 62446.5,
  "sizeUsd": 1000,
  "statedThesis": {
    "primaryDriver": "mean_reversion",
    "supportingSignals": ["rsi_oversold", "funding_negative"],
    "confidence": 0.70,
    "naturalLanguage": "Market is oversold and due for a bounce..."
  },
  "marketSnapshot": {
    "price": 62446.5,
    "btc1hReturn": -0.007,
    "btc24hReturn": -0.026,
    "rsi14": 12.4,
    "fundingRate": -0.0001,
    "fearGreed": 38,
    "volatility": 0.018
  },
  "outcome": {
    "exitPrice": 63100.0,
    "pnlUsd": 10.47,
    "heldMinutes": 240
  }
}

Driver tags

The LLM is constrained to map its reasoning onto this closed enum before each trade. Free-text rationale cannot be aggregated across trades statistically. A closed enum can be. This is what makes the self-deception analysis possible.

momentum_breakoutPrice breaking a level with volume or trend confirmation
mean_reversionPrice has overshot and is likely to revert toward the mean
trend_followEstablished trend continuation with momentum behind it
sentiment_extremeFear and Greed index or positioning at a historical extreme
funding_signalFunding rate imbalance indicating a crowded one-sided position
breakdown_shortSupport break with downside momentum confirming the move
news_catalystIdentifiable news or macro event driving price action

The autopsy feedback loop removes only harmful drivers from the agent's allowed set after each analysis. Decorative and untested drivers remain so the comparison group stays valid and the baseline does not collapse.

Engine methodology

Signal attribution

Pearson correlation of each objective market feature (RSI, 1h return, 24h return, funding rate, Fear and Greed, volatility) with realized PnL. Answers: what actually predicted your winners, regardless of what the agent said? PnL is net of round-trip trading friction (FRICTION_BPS).

Self-deception detection

For each driver the agent cited, its win rate is compared against a direction adjusted baseline: what the same long/short mix of other trades won without citing that driver. This prevents a label from appearing to have edge simply because it was used when the market happened to be rising. Significance is tested with a two proportion z-test. No real lift produces a decorative verdict. Significant negative lift produces a harmful verdict. Significant positive lift produces a real edge verdict.

Confidence calibration

Trades are grouped by stated confidence bucket (0 to 0.6, 0.6 to 0.75, etc.) and stated confidence is compared against the actual win rate within each bucket. The Overconfidence Gap is the average spread between what the agent claimed and what happened.

Autopsy feedback loop

After each autopsy, the verified findings are injected into the agent's system prompt for the next tick. Harmful drivers are removed from the allowed DriverTag enum so the agent cannot cite them again. Decorative drivers remain: removing them would collapse the comparison group and make future baselines invalid.

Multi-asset rotation

The agent rotates through BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, and SOLUSDT one per tick. This prevents the signal attribution finding from being a single-asset tautology (e.g. BTC price predicting BTC trades, which is trivially true).

Honesty caveat

Trades on one asset that open minutes apart and are held for hours have overlapping windows, so outcomes are not fully independent. The report says so explicitly and treats z-scores as directional rather than strict p-values. The effectiveSampleNote field in the report spells this out per driver.